tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC December 15, 2015 12:00pm-1:01pm EST
when they see oil retrace. there's really not supposed to be a correlation between companies and the tech sector and what oil is it, but that has been the case this week. >> some unloved names getting bought today so far. >> carl, thanks so much. welcome to the halftime show. let's meet our starting line-up for today. joe tear november wra is here along with stephanie link, john brown, and pete negarian. with us for the hour, doug sefu, the ceo of virtu financial. also with us today and for good reason senior economics reporter steve liesman. our game plan looks like this. apple versus amazon. which one is the better bet for 2016? our desk debates the two tech all-stars with the stocks going in opposite directions.
>> the sool system decided to close the schools. this is because also, keep in mind, what has happened just less than two weeks ago with the san bernardino shooting, and they wanted to take all necessary precautions because this was a threat not just to one or two schools, but to the entire system. what we're learning now, though, is that new york city officials say they received the seam threat that led to the closure of the l.a. school system, but they quickly concluded that it
was a hoax. mayor bill deblasio said this morning he was convinced there was no danger to schoolchildren in new york. >> a writing to a number of different places simultaneously and also written in a fashion that suggests that it's not plausible he. >> he said it was a similar 230e9 to the one that was received in l.a. that was received about the new york schools as well. still, we still have word, of course, that the l.a. schools have been closed. we're talking about some 900 schools in that district. 640,000 students, and covering some 720 miles.
of that school district there, and they continue to evaluate and search the schools. back to you. >> sharon, thanks so much. sharon eperson with the very latest on that situation out in los angeles. let's turn to the other big story today, and that is the market. rally mode right now. the fed beginning its two-day meeting today. could result in the first interest rate hike in nearly a decade. comes against the back drop of fears over high yield bonds. a warning from 3m and everything happening with oil prices, of course. there's your picture. 1% gain across the board for the markets. i mentioned our all-star cast that we do have today. steve liesman, i would be remiss if i didn't go to you first. it's the beginning of the two-day fed meeting, one in which everybody now expects a hike. is that your thought it? this is a done deal. >> not everyone, so the. our cnbc fed survey has 5% who don't think it's going to happen. >> merely most. entirely everyone. around 95%. this is the expectation. i think the story that -- there's the chart with the
results that we brought in case you didn't believe me, scott, that it is indeed 95%. i think you turn to the question, well, what's next? our survey shows that the market is expecting three rate hikes after this in 2016. there's a lot of discouraging. one-third are at 2. one-third are had at 4. one-fifth are at three. that's the median. you can see where everybody else is. there's one or two guys at zero. 42 respondent there. i believe that after tomorrow's press conference, after tomorrow's statement, that chart right there will tighten up a bit as the fed provides guidance and the market comes to something consensus of what the rate hike path will be. >> is that where we are? we ready? is the market ready? >> for sure. the most important thing comes in the guidance, and i think universally the consensus is that the u.s. dollar is going to rise substantially off this. looking out to 2017, we have expectations. to be up from now then los to 15%, how does she manage that
expectation? that's not something the fed wants to see. >> i think the fed has to be a little bit careful not to try to manage expectations for the dollar because nobody can do it, right? greenspan has said famously that there's nothing that determines the value of a dollar that's any better than the flip of a cone. you don't really know which way it's going to go. the ecb eased -- didn't ease enough. the dollar weakened in that situation. even hoe they did do substantially easing while the fed has gone the other way. you have to manage public expectations and to explain to the public why she's raising rates, and talk to the market and explain that. that's going to be a tricky press conference for yellen. >> in and out. doug, your firm can trade in the high hundreds of millions of shares in a single day across 200 markets from singapore to chicago and all points between. what do you expect to happen tomorrow, and how do you think the markets will react? >> well, obviously i'm with the vast majority of people here. i think the fed will do something tomorrow. the great thing about our firm, though, is we're ready for all contingencies.
one thing we do really well is transfer risks from buyers to sellers, and there's going to be a lot of tragdz tomorrow. i think people have an expectation. i agree with what joe said. i think there will be a lot of nuance in the guidance, and people will look at that and then there will be conclusions drawn from that. i think we'll have a lot of volume tomorrow, which is a good thing for our firm, and a lot of volatility. >> i have a quick question for you. you do need to report this. what one market indicator would you look at tomorrow that would be the clearer sign of how the market is incorporating the guidance? is it the fed funds futures market, the two-year, six-month? where will you look to say now here is the consensus that we talked about doesn't exist over what happens at 2016? >> we're going to focus on the two-year as one of the signal wez like to look at. it will be interesting to see where people's sentiment is as a result of that. obviously, it's a market that we're active in, and it correlates a lot with the other marketplace that is we trade. that's something that we will be focussing on. >> how closely correlate snd you talk about volume and volatility, picking up, and obviously that's very good for your business. how closely tied to the vix are
you? is that the one thing you look at and you say, okay, this is going to be a good day? >> i speak generally about volatility. it's a good thing for our business. people are willing -- spreads widen, and you see volatility, and we're an agent that's trying to transfer risk from buyers to sellers. a general amount of volatility is a good thing. this is something that folks are anticipating we're getting ready for. we'll be there with capital. we'll there with our risk controls. all of the things ready to rock and roll, and it will be hopefully a good day for us in the market. >> i love your comments on what's been taking place in high yield as investor anxiety has ramped up. especially as you get closer to the fed making a move. you guys are an electronic market maker. you make markets in equities. you make markets in etf's. you will not make a market in a high yield bond etf. you told us moments ago. why? >> we make them in 11,000 financial instruments. the common characteristic, if you will, is that we have access
to the underlying instruments, and an efficient electronic way. the high yield market is a very different almost bespoke telephonetic old school market as opposed to the etf market which is electronic. it would be impossible for us as a risk transfer to really confidently price those instruments. we just stay away from corporate bond funds, high yield bond funds. there are owe market makers that do that, and they're guest mating what the underlying portfolio will be at. we went dough that. >> you have the most active market maker in the -- making all of these trades happen. making a statement that you won't play in the high yield bond market. to put that in a basket and say we've velocitized it by making
it a security, i get what the etf officials are doing. i think it's an important investment option for people. zooets got nothing to do with the high yield. the problem is the corporate bond market has never found a way to trade and to move into the digital electronic age the way the rest of the markets have. >> yeah. >> that's your problem. >> really it's access to the underlying index. you're right. market access -- >> they're all the same. loo there's a little more volatility in high yield than there is, you know, a triple-a issuer who is issuing a 2%, 3% bond.
>> we will already in september. by we, i mean the royal we. everyone with a brain knew they had their window, and they blew it. i don't think they'll make the same mistake despite the fact that the data does not scream go, go, go, go, go. i think they've said it too much. stanley fisher has been talking about it since swran they're want going to not get out of zero bound this year. i agree with everyone on the panel. what they say about going forward is probably much bigger of an issue. >> if you are looking for the opportunity to buy the stocks
you want to buy that aren't going to have a fundamental change when rates are either zero or 25 basis points. >> you have that opportunity this week, pete, as the market has sold off. can you point to any number of factors. whether it's moves in crude oil, concerns over high yield, and you can throw a dart at a board and pick a couple of others if you want. >> heats what the market has been giving us is opportunities. you talk about volatility, and volatility, you love it. it's also something very important when you are talking about the corporate bond world and the high risk, high yield bond world as well. >> we want, so the -- you want to have efficient markets and the liquidity. we've talked aabout this throughout the we're. where is that? where doesn't it exist? it doesn't exist there. that's where we've seen these extreme moves to the down side. huge volume. huge volume moves. friday, last week, december. you look at that, and you didn't want to be involved will. it makes a lot of the sense because you're transferring risk. >> right. we're a high volume player. we can't be in the business of
managing individual risks and individual instruments of securities. we trade 11,000 instruments and 225 markets and 35 countries with 150 people. we've automated market making. we don't have the ability or the time or the inkling to look at 700,000 high yield bonds and say are these secure? >> that's want an area you're going. you're not looking at that at all. there's not enough concentrated volume. >> isn't that the problem. van forward doesn't bother to look. black rock doesn't bother to look. that's the new shadow bank that essentially controls the flow of funds to everything. you know, the banks are not involved with corporate credit to the extent that they were. no one is looking. it's just basket and basket and baskets. does that bother you at any point? >> last point before break. >> fundamentally banks have
gotten out of the principle risk of making loans, and if you will, they are underwriting these and passing them off on to the markets. they end up in clo's and hedge funds, and they end up overseas. whether or not individuals or whether or not these institutions are making fundamental credit decisions, hard to say. i would think that they probably would, but certainly you have seen some high yield issuances in the last couple of years where you kind of have to scratch your head at the yields and a lack of covenants. you say to yourself is this a bubble, and if it is a bubble, to your point, you know, how do you attack the bubble? what's the right way into the market? >> much more with doug coming up after the break. we're going to hear from stephanie link as well. also, vinnie viola, the executive chairman at virtu. the former chairman of the nymex. he will join us to talk energy etf's, the fed. so much more. plus, goe light lie ath versus goliath. apple or amazon right now? the debate on twot tech giants is just ahead. a news flash. pete is making trades in his halftime portfolio. that's right. multiple ones. i know. hard to believe. as we head to break, take a look
at the s&p sector heat map. there it is. it's green across the board. cnbc first in business worldwide. proud of you, son. ge! a manufacturer. well that's why i dug this out for you. it's your grandpappy's hammer and he would have wanted you to have it. it meant a lot to him... yes, ge makes powerful machines. but i'll be writing the code that will allow those machines to share information with each other. i'll be changing the way the world works. (interrupting) you can't pick it up, can you? go ahead. he can't lift the hammer. it's okay though! you're going to change the world.
>> contrast that with the manufacturing that's been weak. depending how she spins this, it will be interesting to see if the financials can continue to lead because they're leading today. and if energy continues to lead. that's going to be dollar dependent. what happens -- the dollar goes up, and that would be, you know, push crude oil lower. what happens if people are overjoyed that the fed has moved and it's a sign that the economy
is doing pretty good and then stocks would go up anyway. if oil goes down. >> could you get a knee jerk reaction where oil does fall on the stronger dollar. i'm not sure the dollar is going to surge. i actually think that 2016, the dollar is going to go higher. it's not going to be at the velocity that you have seen it in 2015, and so, therefore, maybe the markets can handle it. maybe the commodity markets can handle it. probably energy more than the other commodities in my opinion. voluntary does this trend keep going? energy -- where energy goes, so does stocks. >> i think it does. i also think that if we get a little bit of a growth pickup here in the first quarter, i think you could have a differentiation between what the price of oil is doing, what the real economy is doing, what strongs are doing, and most importantly, what profit margins are doing. they need to find their bottom and reaccelerate. >> alyou know about now we have a special guest, doug sefu. we're happy to welcome in the founder of that company, vinnie viola. he rose from the energy trading picks to be the chairman of the new york mercantile exchange before launching virtu and is
the owner of the nhl florida panthers, and he is life with us on the phone. welcome to the halftime show. great to have you on. >> it's great to be with you guys. >> there is so much to discuss relative to the markets, and right into your wheelhouse is where i want to begin. >> have you to have a good feel for where energy may be going. what are your thoughts on where oil is heading from here and the implications it will have on the stock market? >> i think -- i -- from the fundamental perspective, i think there are new supply sources that market quite -- it's not quite able to consider in terms of the price impact. i'm talking particularly the iranian flow that is will start and be net internationally available. as a technician, and that is
what i am. a technician. i have said that the oil markets are going to range down to $32, maybe test $29. i think the action we've seen in the last week with such volatility and lags thereof to the down side makes me feel pretty comfortable that $32 is really ae realistic price. >> wow. >> and i think at that point the market will digest again in terms of the fundamentals. it could go as low as the high 20s. that's what i've been saying for a whale. >> what reverses that course? have you some people who are starting to come on this network and maybe elsewhere and say, well, you know, crude can get to 60. crude can get to 80 next year. what reverses this trend that we've been in in this downward spiral? >> well, first of all, the market -- the perception. the market perception is that
there is supply that cannot be utilized, and i think when you look at the storage rates and you look at the supply rates and the trend of the weekly reports, that's not changing. i think another very, very subtle driver to the down side, you see efficiencies across all consumptions. crude oil basically is driven in termdz of its true commercial value by the gasoline market, and you see gasoline usage not really recovering or gaining steam, and this is a combination of efficiencies, hybrid efficiencies, which are increasing, and i think that's a big overhang to the market. when does it end? i think it's a combination of three forces. you'll start to see an expansion
in the xhu jerusaleming will you accidents and you think we all believe that that -- that's more than likely that our current rate of economic growth will continue. you'll see the large major oil firms balance their inventories against need because they always get caught. they always are lagging into that calculation. no matter how efficiently they hedge. i think the last -- the last ingredient is always the hedge market and the financial oil market, and, again, they always overreact. my feeling is i don't -- i am not as bullish as most -- i think next year you can see the oil market just react on price and price alone, and supply and supply alone up to $50.
>> there are many today talking and saying, hey, oil recovered and got to $147. why can't it happen again? it sounds like you don't think that can happen again. is that true? secondarily, i've been talking about national gas the last couple of days below $it. how in trouble is the price of natural gas do you think? >> oh, i think domestically the natural gas price is probably more threatened by btu on a btu ekwifl ensy basis than crude oil. it's a locked market. you know, you see the disparity. you see where natural gas is trading in europe, and you see
where it's trading here. until we can balance supply against need here in the u.s. by exploring that natural gas in large amounts, i see natural gas not recovering for a bit. as you know, natural gas takes a very long time as a market to absorb supply and demand imbalances. >> the bankers have really, really learneded and have gotten much more efficient about -- around this. even now with crude going down
to the $30 level, so much of the debt that has been ascribed to these prices has been edge hadded very efficiently. this is about supply and demand, and so on the way back, those hedges will start to come off, and that will put a downward pressure on the price of oil. it might sfwloosh sit tight. bear with us. we'll take a quick commercial, and we want to talk to you about the markets. market structure. a whole bunch of other topics as well on the other side of a quick break. coming up, back with virtu executive chairman vinnie viola, the ceo doug sefu with us as well. we'll debate amazon versus apple. much more with traders and the gang next.
side market -- this after bloomberg headlines that said that u.s. regulators may be looking to be -- or may be unsatisfied with the current deal as it stands. halliburton is a pending deal -- bloomberg headlines crossing saying that the u.s. may not be satisfied with the current deal tazz starts. a decision on approving that they'll maybe push back to 2016. we did see a down side move here, but now those shares are up by about flat right now. back over to you, guys. >> dom chu. back with doug and vinnie of virtu financial. vinnie, back from the raek. i want to talk market structure with you. i think it's a topic that's near and dear to what we do at this network, and i know this viewers are interested in how the markets operate.
the market opened down 1 sthous poishts off the out set. is there a problem with the way the current markets are structured, and if so, how do you fix it? >> i think. >> if you look at the amount of volume and the efficiency, they -- the volume amounts have gone up and the efficiencies upsizes as measured by how much volume you transact and how much tight of a spread that has increased. if you look at the transaction costs, brokerage costs, they collapsed. markets can always be improved. i think one of the areas that has to be looked at specifically
is particularly on opening periods, having very, very tight circuit breakers or what we call in the commodity business, price limits. if you can have dynamic price limits, you won't have issues being traded in irrationale distances from the settlement price. the single thing we can to to improve the volatility particularly in the opening moments of the marketplace, is to employ dynamic price limits. in terms of the market structure and its complexity, i have always believed that market senders have highway provide service to unique users will be rewarded with volume, and market
senders that don't provide value in terms of continuous liquidity and fair pricing will fall by the wayside. he think you see most of the volume is today to the equity market being transacted and being transacted on less than what we would call ten nationally listed exchanges, and a few others. august 14th, think about dynamics. that means for each stock, you will not allow it to trade a certain percentage based on the volatility profile for that stock that has been measured over a period of time prior to that open. it will be like a rolling dynamic price limit. he is not or she's not going to be filled x percent from where
the last price was traded. i think that -- the other market structure challenge we have to take on, and i have had conversations with joe about this, and we both, i think, are curious as to why with all of the efficiencies that we have around real straight-through processing and real-time clearing, do we need a three-day clearing cycle in the equity markets. i think if we can get to a top day clearing cycle, one day clearing cycle in the equity markets, you would have enormous amounts of relief in volatility of price movement. wron if that was too long of an answer. >> look, i appreciate the answer in and of itself. i think a lot of people look at what happened on the 24th and wonder, you know, what the heck is going on because the markets that we know and love and rely
on every day didn't seem to be acting correctly, and people are looking for some kind of answer in a way to fix it, and whether regulators have the gumption to do just that in a way that keeps the markets as efficient as possible so that everybody can operate them in a fair and honest way. let me wrap up the conversation if i may. i know you are also the owner of the florida panthers. i want to touch that for a moment. also, i left out in your bio, perhaps the most important part of all, and that's the fact that you are a west point grad. as we look at sort of trying to help our vets come back from wherever they are around the world and get good jobs and maybe jobs on wall street are in finance, you think we're doing enough? we have this conversation on veterans day every year, and then it sort of goes by the way side. are we doing enough in that regard? >> well, you know, it's a tale of two cities, quite frankly,
scott. for the sort of actualized young officer coming back from combat tour or who chooses to leave the service social security, the swrob opportunities for that level of veteran are very, very numerous, but for the enlisted person who serves a tour or two in combat coming back we're failing horribly. we're not -- we're not tracking their re-entry into society from the perspective of transferring their -- there's a big disekt. there are so many well-intended large firms. i know home depot has done phenomenal work at seeking out that type of work, but we have to do much better job, and i
think quite frankly we're failing our veterans in not making sure that their re-entry and the skills they learn while serving the nation are coordinated to a point where it results in them being hired, and heats something for all of us to work on. the many, many well-intended charities, but they don't have the substantive expertise that is needed to really connect with these veterans and place them in jobs in society where they are going to more than likely succeed. thank you for asking that question. >> yeah. you bet. thank you, sir, for joining us today. i know you don't do this very often, if ever. we certainly appreciate the time, and your thoughts on all things markets and a whole bunch of other topics. hope to have you back soon. >> thank you, guys. you got a great team there and want to give a shout-out to everybody over there. thank you, guys, very much. >> we appreciate that very much. vinnie viola, the financial
executive chairman for virtu. we'll talk to you about hockey coming up soon. back to the biggest story going on wall street today. that being the dow. up 1.5%. s&p 500 right there as well. the fed beginning its two-day meeting today. away could be a game changing meeting. potentially raising interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. lots of asset classes are on the move. back after this break. we're going to trade all of this em. with passion. business but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet? and this year, look at whate he put in our driveway. the lexus december to remember sales event is here.
welcome back. it is a big day for stocks. there's the s&p 500. up 1.5%. the fed begins its two-day meeting and perhaps a historic one. the fact that it could raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. oil has been rallying, and that's certainly helping out the major avrmgz. all at session highs. almost good across the board for nearly 1.5%. there's the picture of crude as i tell you, up 3.5%. we're back with doug. the ceo of virt u financial. we're talking about stocks. i want to talk about yours. you are coming off a record
quarter. >> i think there's probably an expectation we were going to have an incredible out sized third quarter. i thought we did really well. analyst estimates had been 27% cents and increased to 35 cents, and we delivered 40 cents, and the stock went down. i don't really worry about that day to day. we're a long-term investor, and i'm here to deliver value for our shareholders long-term who keep chugging along and trying to generate profits. >> let me ask you about market structure picking up the conversation we were having with vinnie. >> i mean, certainly i think the dialogue has calmed down a lot from a year and a half ago. a year and a half ago when the michael lewis book first came out, it was borderline hysteria
around the marketplace, electronic trading, high frequency trading, if you will. i think one of the benefits from us being public and being open about what it is we do, we're a market maker, and we just transfer risk from buyer to seller. this is a financial services function that's been going on for a long time. we use a high volume manner. people who have responded to that and then transparency, i think regulators get what we do. certainly i think the level of the dialogue, scott, has increased dramatically. >> there's a better understanding you think among from the smallest to the largest of investors exactly what high frequency trading firms do and exactly what electronic market making firms like yours does? >> i don't think the small retail investors kind of get it. i think they get bits and pieces of it, and maybe they still see the "60 minutes" piece or read an article in a paper. i think regular litters and policymakers and more important big market participants, the buy side that have taken the time to
look at market structure, i think they get what we are, get what we do, and the dialogue has become a lot more skrushgtive. along the lines of what you talked about on august 24th. i think one of the most important thing is black rock came out with a great industry piece with a number of recommend dayings. some of which the new york stock exchange has already put into place. these are going to be market structure improvement that is the industry will have come up with, we've been a part of that to make the markets more rebust. >> am versus amazon. the stocks are moving in opposite directions. which is the better bet for your portfolio. "people" pete making three trades today in his halftime portfolio. the details of what that guy right there is doing. that's next.
it is a tale two tech all stars. amazon soared 100% this year. apple cannot seem to gain momentum is still in correction territory. there's a look at the charts. let's debate it chchlt stock will be the better bet for your portfolio over the next 12 months. over the next year? let's focus on those parameters, pete. >> well, now that i note parameters, i didn't know. that i was going to say short term, amazon. 12 months, i'm going to say the second half story is going to be, and that's what we got out of that note yet from morgue an stanley, second half starts to pick up again. so september i think apple actually does make the move. i think before that, i think in the first six moves the year, i think amazon beats out apple. >> josh? >> i think i'm with pete. apple's been below the 200 day
in august. got jekt rejected within hours. amazon is opposite of that. the entire year including the events of august and september. so if you're shorter term oriented, amazon. if you're like pete, i agree. if you have a year, amazon expectations get too lofty. you want to be in the und underperformer, not the leader. >> i agree that short term apple has challenged. and we'll continue to be underweight. amazon is in the two secular growth areas wrf you want to be in technology and in the consumer. in e-commerce, they're growing revenue seven times as fast as the average retailer. and in cloud, they're growing 13 times as fast as the next cloud competitor. so these guys got the growth. the problem you is got to seat margins. i thinker that in the process of improving the margins.
you'll see operating leverage. i think the stock continues to work. >> okay. joe? >> i think it's early psych until terms of profit margins that steph is talking b i'm going to go with amazon until the story changes. the market will tell you then you switch to am. >> as we continue to count down to the fed decision tomorrow, we're back after this. you pay your car insurance
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there is the leader board in our halftime competition. you are run ago way with the pack. the big story today, pete making trades. not one -- trades, plural. what are you doing? >> i shuffled a few things around. i like the same sectors and same areas. i want to see if i can get more torque out of the names. citi was having a nice day, so was bank of america. i think bank of america, i'm looking -- the combination of the fact that they're a bank as well as the brokerage side, scott, i think that's why maybe
it gives me more torque post fed. that's why i switched there. underarmour is underperforming. i got into the low 90s. here it is in the low 80s. absolute underperformance. i have to get rid of. that i think nike continues this run. maybe even presses and establishes new highs maybe before the end of the year. that will be my hope. and then jetblue. i love this name. had a huge pop for me. had a great pop. i didn't take advantage of that pop. my mistake there. but delta just continues to perform and pushing near the highs. i think delta is another one that can break throughout highs, especially with oil where it is and if vinny is right and oil continues to move to the down side, i think that pushes the airlines higher. >> pete is going to try to make a run of it. you have a couple weeks left. >> a couple shifts. >> i like it a lot. all right. good stuff. back to doug. let's talk hockey for a second. you're the owner of the florida panthers along with vinny. you have managed to do pretty well in an area where people have worried that you can't do
well-being south florida for hockey. zb >> well, it's an interesting market. it's a tale two of seasons. it's a bragreat fan base. we have snow birds that come in. they're hockey fans. we encourage them to come to the building. we also want them to bring tlir kids. that's the key. they bring their kids when they're visiting and we hope to create a generation of panther fans. >> overall nhl business appears to be performing pretty well. >> it's a great business. i like the structure of it. there is really good revenue sharing. you see a lot of parody in the league. we can compete with montreal. we both play under the same hard salary cap. so we're trying to juggle young players and old players the way that montreal and toronto and the big boys are. >> and washington. i know you forgot that. >> the bullets? >> yeah. >> i remember the bullets very well. big game in town tonight. >> that's the real story
tonight. so scott agreed to wear his florida panthers jersey. >> i like the colors. >> wapner on the back and the panther logo. >> you're too kind. you're too kind. >> he is a bully. >> alex ovechkin may have a problem with. that. >> i have hats for everybody else. old school throwback hats. joe promised me he would wear it the entire night. >> he's a killer. >> match miz suit. >> thank you. >> thank you so much for being here. >> thanks for having me. >> great having you on. a big day to talk markets as we head to the fed and some issues that are internally making inve investors nervous. stocks right now are just off the highs of the day. we'll continue to kick it around tomorrow with some really great guests. lee cooperman and the bond king jeffrey gunlock will be on tomorrow. we'll fwauk what's going to happen with the stock market post fed. we'll talk about what's going to happen in the bond market post
fed with really two of the best voices on both topics. rich sapperstein is going to be here to close out the week. we're excited with everything that we have for you over the next coming days. joe, wrap things up for me here. this is looking ahead to a very big day tomorrow. with the market going to be looking for tomorrow afternoon. what gets the stock market running between now and the end of the year? what does janet yellen have to say? that's two big weeks. >> okay. so between now and the end of the year, janet yellen will say something about the guidance going forward that will make everyone feel comfortable that value of the u.s. dollar is not going to accelerate, not going to appreciate significantly. that will continue to weigh on profit margins. profit margins are the key to the next leg of this move higher. >> the portfolio manager, you have big decisions to make over the next, not only two weeks but many months. >> i want to get tomorrow overwith. i think it's a really big weight on the market.
let's get it overwith. then the risk trade goes on for the next two weeks. and then we kind vf to reassess where the economy is for next year. >> maybe that sums it up best. the thousghts of a lot of investors. >> you said it, sister. >> you got it. >> stocks are on the highs of the day. "power lunch" picks up stothe sy now. >> indeed we do pick it up from there, scott. thank you very much. this is "power lunch." welcome, everybody. i'm tyler mathisen. the bulls are running a day ahead of the fed decision. the dow moving near its high of the day, up 250 points or thereabouts. nasdaq in percentage terms, they're all there at 1.5%. s&p 500 3u7up 31 points. commodities, though, continue to be a story as well as you see right there. look at the move in west texas crude at $37.64. up